There is a slight possibility of killing the Earth in 2032 in an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet wide – but exact obstacles have been a moving target as Space Rock was first discovered about two months ago.
NASA’s latest estimates for asteroids, known as 2024 YRR4, is that it has only 0.28% likely to have a striking Earth – about 360 chance. But the agency on Wednesday placed a 1.5% possibility at 1.5%, and on the first day, NASA estimated the possibility of a collision that it was a record of 3.1% high, or 1 in 32.
Those prior obstacles first classified the space rock as a level 3 in the first 10, known as the Torino Scale, known as astronomers. Richard Binzel first proposed about three decades ago.
A level 3 classification means that object attracts attention by astronomers, and it is a risk of “close encounter”.
Italian city was named where astronomers officially adopted it In 1999, the Torino Impact Hazard Scale is a way to communicate the risks to the public that can pose to the planet near Earth’s asteroids and other cosmic objects.
The scale is color-coded, which has categories of 10 (red for some conflicts) from 0 (without any danger). When 2024 YR 4 was considered a 3.1% chance of killing the Earth, it was placed in the intermediate yellow area of the scale.
The hurry of news coverage about asteroid has attracted the Torino scale more attention than ever. Binzel said that this type of situation is right why he made the system in the first place.
Binzel, a professor at Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said, “This idea was to be equally transparent that astronomers know.” “But it is like being between a rock and a difficult place because we want to report what we know to maintain public belief, but we do not want to increase any unnecessary anxiety.”
The challenges of running that fine line are clear with 2024 YRR4.
The possibility of impact fell this week this week, NASA said that the ground-based telescope was able to take a better look at the space rock overnight on 19 and 20 February. Depending on those comments, astronomers have been able to refine the model. The orbit of the asteroid, allows them to make more accurate estimate of the trajectory of the space rock. This in turn helps scientists to predict more certainty where 2024 YR4 will take place on December 22, 2032, the date when the asteroid is likely to have an encounter with the Earth.
Although shifting possibilities are somewhat dizzy, but according to Binzel, it is completely common for the possibility of dancing to dance in this way.
“If you consider it as a baseball game, the amount of information about tracking this asteroid is trying to find out where a fly ball will land on the bat,” he said.
In other words, it will take longer to see and measure the size and path of the asteroid before it is found whether it is still a danger.
When Binzel started the Torino scale for the astronomical community decades ago, their goal impact was to promote more public awareness about risks. He said that the idea was to apply something similar to the Richter scale that measures the magnitude of the earthquake, or the Saifir-Simpson scale that provides categories to the storm based on its wind speed.
But when he first introduced the system at the United Nations Conference in 1997 – it was not well received, he said. According to some astronomers, Binzel, it was suspected that it would be useful to the public.
The same year, however, scientists discovered an asteroid dubbed on 1997 XF11 that some ideas could hit the Earth in 2028. It did not take long for astronomers to rule with a possible collision, but the Doomsde Katha spread into the news reports, followed by the blame for the defect.
“It ended a bit of embarrassment,” Binzel said. “It was not that astronomers had made an error, but we did not have a good way to communicate uncertainty. So it became an inspiration to propose a simple system to classify any object, for which for which for which it became an inspiration for which We cannot immediately assume that it will remember the Earth for the coming centuries.
Binzel once again presented the scale at a conference in Torino in 1999, in which NASA and Representatives of the European Space Agency attended. In that workshop, the system was eventually adopted by the International Astronomical Association, a non-governmental organization made up of professional astronomers, acting like a governing body for the astronomical community.
In addition to the use of colors and numbers to suit various risk levels, the scale also includes details of potential results, the possibility that the risk assessment may change, and what action should be taken to governments or members of the public.
For example, the risk of a level 6 in the orange zone, “a serious but still an indefinite threat to a global destruction by a large object.”
Astronomers are advised to “pay significant attention” to this object to find out that there will be a collision. “If the encounter is less than three decades, the government contingency plan can be warned,” the scale says.
On the other hand, a level 3 threat means: “According to the details of the current calculation scale, the competent destruction gives 1% or more possibility of the collision.” “Most likely, the new telescope comments will re -assignment up to level 0. Publicly and attention by public authorities is attracted if the encounter is less than a decade less than a decade.”
Unexpectedly, then, Binzel was correctly doubted when asteroid 2024 YRR4 was considered 3 on the scale that it would eventually be downgrade.
But during that brief time, 2024 YRR4 hit some uncomfortable milestones: this level was the only known asteroid with a classification above 1, and it reached the highest impact likely and the longest time with more than 1% probability. Set records for spending. , According to the European Space Agency.
An asteroid of similar or large size is classified on the torino scale, in 2004, when the asteroid epoffis was abbreviated as a level 4, with an estimated 2.7% chance to kill the Earth.
To look at the work of the scale in real time, it has been satisfactory, Binzel said, although he is happy to be untrue about his relationship.
“At the end of the day, if the torino scale is helpful, then there is a lot of satisfaction in it. This really makes my day, ”he said. “But it is good to hide my name behind the place where the scale was adopted. Which helps prevent my phone from ringing too much. ,
