The United States, the Middle East and world oil markets are bracing for Iran’s response after President Donald Trump launched punishing strikes on Iranian nuclear energy sites overnight, plunging the region into an unprecedented new phase of a decades-old conflict.
The U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities, including the key Fordo site, with 14 GBU 57s, 30,000-pound “bunker buster bombs,” according to the U.S. military. It was the first time the United States has directly bombed the Islamic Republic.
The next 48 hours are of particular concern, according to two defense officials and a senior White House official. It’s unclear whether any retaliation would target overseas or domestic locations, or both, the officials said.
U.S. bases and assets have been at their highest state of alert for months, but after Israel began warring with Iran on June 13, the officials, who spoke earlier in the week, said concerns were heightened even more about the potential for attacks on U.S. assets from Iran or its proxies in the region.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, meanwhile, warned of “everlasting consequences.”
Iran has already shown its capacity to inflict damage on its enemies.
Since Israel’s initial attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iranian missiles have pierced the country’s vaunted missile-defense system, the Iron Dome, reduced apartment blocks to rubble, and killed at least 24 people. After the U.S. attacks, the nation launched a missile barrage into Israel Sunday morning, causing damage and injuries in Tel Aviv.
“Iran will try to redouble its efforts against Israel in order to show its determination to inflict damage on its arch enemy,” Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said. “We are likely to witness major escalation between Iran and Israel in the next few days.”
However, Gerges added, Iran will try and avoid “being dragged into an all-out war with the United States.”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards argue that the sheer number and spread of U.S. bases in the region, where it has some 40,000 forces, are not a strength, but a “point of vulnerability.”
The U.S. has bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries. Last week it moved some aircraft and ships that may be vulnerable to a potential attack, and has limited access to its al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
It’s unclear whether Iran could retaliate with missile attacks on U.S. or allied forces in the Gulf. Israel has managed to intercept many of the ballistic missiles and drones that Iran has fired over the past week.
And it’s also uncertain whether any retaliation will come directly from Tehran or one of its proxies in the region.
