US President Donald Trump has extended his economic fight with Beijing, slapping up to 245% in cumulative tariffs on sugar imports – the most aggressive American trade action over the years.
While these tariffs gave a tough competition to China’s major industries – including technology, important minerals and consumer goods – Trump has reduced or reduced duties on most other countries, giving a rare opportunity to shine countries like India.
Latest Salvo: April 15 Executive Order Checks whether the Chinese exports of rare Earth metals and significant minerals threaten US national security – a result of an inquiry as a result of more tariffs. Meanwhile, China has retaliated with its duties on American goods and tightened control of export of major materials such as Gallium, Germanium and rare earth.
why it matters
- The world’s two largest economies are deep in a tight-for-tat shodown that is interrupting global supply chains and investors confidence. But in this chaos, India is gaining land – as a neutral, stable and scalable manufacturing option.
- While Beijing accused the US of “threatening and blackmailing”, and analysts warned of recession risks, India is being re -linked to the storm as a rare shelter. From tech veterans to production to foreign capital finding firmer, the country is emerging as a central person in the revival of global commerce.
- Companies like Apple INC are already making changes in production. Bloomberg reported that the iPhone manufacturer collected $ 22 billion iPhone in India in the 12 months ended March, a 60% jump compared to the previous year, Bloomberg reported. This means that 1 in every 5 iPhones is made in India.
- Apple’s supply chain pivot is not just symbolic – it is current. In March alone, the company, according to Reuters, airlifted around $ 2 billion from India to the US to pretend Trump’s tariff. Customs data suggests that Foxconn exported equipment of $ 1.31 billion and $ 612 million to Tata Electronics.
- India’s low risk for America’s trade – only 2.7% of American imports compared to 14% for China – it does a lot with direct results.
Zoom in: India’s tariff-free age
- Iphones manufactured in India are exempted from Trump’s technical tariff unlike people currently made in China.
- Apple now collects all the iPhone models in India, including the top-end titanium Pro version.
- According to the Ministry of Technology of India, an iPhone worth $ 17.4 billion was exported from India in FY 25.
- Bloomberg reported that India’s share in Apple’s global iPhone production may soon reach 30%.
- Trump’s 145% tariff wall on China includes fantanel-related goods (20%), inappropriate trade practices (125%) and stacked duty on a global 10% baseline levy. But he has clarified: China is the main goal.
Reading Trump’s message, Press Secretary Karolin Lewitt said, “The ball is in China’s court.” “China needs to make a deal with us. We do not need to make a deal with them.”
Big photo: India’s manufacturing moment
Seizing a unique window made by India:
- Trump’s China-Cowlian attack
- 90 days discount from mutual tariff
- A consent trade stance, retaliation avoiding vengeance
- PM Narendra Modi’s multi-billion-dollar ‘Make in India’ incentives
The Modi government has pumped $ 26 billion in manufacturing subsidy, which includes fresh $ 2.7 billion incentives for electronics and semiconductors. This, plus tax brake and infrastructure upgrade, is attracting companies eager for de-disters from China.
Unlike China’s disregard, India’s approach has been agreed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has actively demanded an provisional trade agreement with the US and avoided any vengeance. Combined with that diplomatic restraint, strong domestic demand and targeted industrial incentive, India has made India a more attractive destination for companies diversifying production.
Sneha Tulsi of Tokyo Marine Asset Management said, “India’s non-revision and active negotiation approach has placed it on a strong position.”
Apple’s innings has also proved that India’s industrial ecosystem can score quickly. Just before Trump’s tariff was hit, Apple asked Indian authorities to cut customs withdrawal time from 30 hours to 6 hours at Chennai Airport. Target: Fly out 600 tonnes of iPhones before punishment.
What are they saying
Gary Dugan, CEO of Global CIO office, said, “We live overweight in our portfolio.”
Mahesh Nandurkar of Jefferies wrote, “India should emerge as a relative outperformor, who upgraded India into” overweight “in the firm’s pre-Japan model of Asia.
“It is a clear case for investors to bet on India’s flexibility,” said CIO Harshad Patvordon at Union Asset Management.
Global funds have responded rapidly:
- Indian Bonds rally, while the US and Chinese property took a hit.
- India’s Nifty 50 erased all tariff-powered losses, making it the first major global market to rebound.
- Foreign institutions have added $ 25 billion to Indian markets this year.
Yes, but: obstacles remain
According to a New York Times report, India’s breakout moment is real – but not without friction.
Despite the 10 years of the Modi government’s “Make in India” campaign, manufacturing is still below 15% for less than 13% of India’s economy. China accounts for about 25%.
Vikram Bathla, founder of Indian battery maker Licraft, told NYT, “We do not have skilled workers to use the equipment.” Most of his inputs – and machinery – are still imported from China.
Challenges include:
- Shortage of efficient technical labor
- Dependence on foreign input, especially for high -tech goods
- Limited credit for expensive land and small businesses
- Slow courts and red tapes that discourage scale
- Even as the factories grow, many people rely on Chinese raw materials and European machinery. As Anil Bhardwaj of a local business body said: “There is a fear of big firms – and a relaxed justice system.”
What’s next: test of India’s readiness
Analysts say that India is better than peers like Vietnam or Mexico to absorb global supply chain changes. But without structural reforms – from education to land use – India can struggle to give its potential.
Nevertheless, the emotion is strong. As soon as Trump’s tariffs cut into Chinese exports, Apple is just the beginning. India is drawing new interest in auto parts, textiles, chemicals and semi -circulars.
“India is not untouched,” Socain’s strategist Rajat Aggarwal told Bloomberg. “But this is a relatively better situation.”
Bloomberg Economics sees only 0.3–0.4% potential GDP hit from the global trade war – a mild impact that can be offset by new American trade agreements under current discussion.
Bottom line
Trump’s trade war is shaking the global economy – and when China feels heat, India is in the news.
In the way of Apple, climbing as the construction power of India is no longer imaginary. If the policy makers can smooth the front road, this may be India’s breakout moment on the world factory floor.
(With input from agencies)
