Suncore Energy Refinery is seen on 3 February 2025 during the extreme cold season in Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty images
HUTON – Canadian’s largest oil producer stands at a depth integrated North American oil and gas market intersection, it will diversify its exports from the United States if President Donald Trump’s tariffs do not end.
Alberta Premier Daniel Smith on Wednesday presented two possible futures for the continent. In one, Canada and the US reached an agreement to create “Fort North America”, made to support 2 million barrels per day in additional exports in the US market with a new pipeline capacity, Smith said at the Servek Energy Conference.
This would support Trump’s “Energy Dominance” agenda, Smith said, “allows the US to increase its exports in the global market by backfilling those barrels with a neighbor and close oil imported oil. This will maintain low consumer prices in the US, said, which is also part of the agenda carried out by Trump.
Smith said Alberta wants to supply America with energy that needs to win the race against China to gain dominance in Artificial Intelligence. Premier said, “I don’t think none of us want to see a communist, the totalitarian rule becomes a world, the global leader in AI,” said Premier.
In another future, Trump continues his trade war against Canada and begins to search for oil and gas customers beyond Alberta America, Smith said.
Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and Alberta is the largest producer in the country. According to the Canadian energy regulator, the country’s 4 million BPD oil exports moved to the US in 2023 with several European countries and Hong Kong. Alberta supplied 87% of the oil exported from Canada to the US in 2023.
“There are at least six or seven projects that are emerging in Canada, in this incident we are not able to enter a partnership agreement with the US,” Smith said.
Provincial Energy Minister Brian Jean said on Tuesday that uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff hazards has already forced Alberta to “see more opportunities to get more barrels than our borders apart from the United States.”
The Energy Minister said that Alberta is in active discussion about oil export shipping to those countries with South Korea, Japan and European countries. “The truth is that we are looking in every direction except the United States regarding our priorities,” Jean said.
Canada sees Europe, Asia
Trump’s tariff has rescued financial markets and created confusion among investors in the last one week. The President on Wednesday imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada. They have prevented duties on Canadian oil and gas on gas as well as other items on other items that are in line with the trade agreement that control North America.
The Trump administration has not clarified how much can be in line with the US trade agreement in Canada’s energy exports. Oil and gas that is not obedient will have to face 10% tariff. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright refused to provide details when asked by CNBC on Monday.
Smith said on Wednesday that Canadian oil producers are busy filling paperwork to ensure that their exports are in line with the US.
Smith said, “There was a similar issue of paperwork that our companies had.” “There was no reason to register, and therefore there is now. I think they have all called their lawyers and they are in compliance. I will not expect a lot of our oil and gas has been targeted.”
But it is not clear that Trump will proceed with tariffs when their break will end on 2 April. Wright said a deal with Canada on Monday that the tariff survives on oil, gas and other energy is “certainly possible” but “it’s very hurry to say.”
“We can not get any tariff or very little tariff, but it has become mutual,” Wright said in an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sulivan.
Alberta will take time to pive the markets beyond the US if the tariffs become effective. Almost all Canada’s pipelines run to the US Canada in the south, only a pipeline that extends from Alberta to the west coast of the country from Alberta, which provides access to Asian markets. There is no pipeline that runs from Alberta to the eastern coast of the country.
Smith stated that Canada is looking at three separate pipeline proposals in its West Coast, at least one pipeline in north -western regions, in Manitoba, in a Hudson Bay, and one in East Canada.
Jean said about the pipelines, “They are talking that we were not doing three months ago.” But Canada took 12 years to expand its trans mountain pipeline that connects to the country’s west coast.
Alberta is not interested in taking a page from Ontario’s playbook, Jean said on Tuesday. Premier Doug Ford in response to Trump’s tariff imposed 25% overload on the power exported to the US. He later suspended the fine after the US agreed to resume talks.
“We don’t believe that this is the right way to do,” Jean said about Alberta’s position. “We want to reduce the situation.”
Alberta Energy Minister said that Canada has presented the US with several options. Jean refused to provide the nuances, but said that the Trump administration needs a strong strategic petroleum reserve to achieve its goal of energy dominance.
“This also means that they should be able to get a good stable supply of the product from Canada,” he said.
If the tariffs become effective, they will harm both Canadian and Americans, especially people who cannot increase value, they said. He said that price growth would be “equally” equally “equally” among American customers and producers in Canada.
“It is being felt by all the parties and clearly there are many people (…) who cannot tolerate it,” he said. “We need to think about those because they are less lucky who really have no other option but to buy fuel.”
Jean swipe on Trump’s repeated calls to Canada to become the 51st state.
“As long as we are in charge, we don’t mind,” Jean said. “But the truth is that Republicans will never be selected again.”
