Victor Vembanyama, Thursday’s news was that he is Hope to remember the rest of the seasonA mortal lock to win a defensive player of the year.
He has blocked 74 more shots than any other player in basketball this season. He is one of only seven centers with more than 50 stolen centers. In basketball, only four players compete with more shots per game, and none of those four players affect even half as a pass. It is rarely to say that an award race is over in February, but Vambanyam was healthy, he was going to win the defensive player of the year. Probably unanimously.
Now, however, the Vambanyama is disqualified for the award. His season ends with only 46 games due to blood clots in his right shoulder. This leaves her minimum compulsory 19 games for eligibility.
Another award is going to win. Now the question is who is.
Three ripple effects of Victor Vambanyama injury: how season-ending diagnosis effect spurs, DPOY race, peacock
Sam Quin
Vambanyama was so uniquely prominent that he shook most of the historical trends that took us to the previous winners. Now out of the picture with him, three trends are standing out of previous winners to help us understand what voters see for this award:
- Team success on defense. Since 2008, every winner has played for the top-five defense. The spurs were ranked 19th. An exception to Wambanyama would have been created. Perhaps it opens the door for a more possible exception, but without the extraordinary statistical profile of Vambanyama, they would be fighting a hard battle.
- The success of the team is overall. In the same period since 2008, every winner has played for a playoff team. The postsen format has clearly changed since then, but it is difficult to imagine someone outside the top 10 at their conference, which continues to be meaningful for the award.
- size. Only three circumference players have won this century: Ron Artest, Kavi Leonard and Marcus Smart. It is not impossible for the wing to win, but it is rare and almost correct will need to be resumed.
In further complex cases, it is how many other elite guards have already been excluded from eligibility. Chet Holmagren, Osar Thompson, Isaiah Heartenstein and Jalan Sugs are already running, and Anthony Davis will soon join him. The pool is not as deep as it usually.
So, who is still on the table?
Top candidate to win defensive player of the year
According to Kaiser Sportsbook, betting favorite, Jaren Jackson Jr. (+100) and Ivan Moble (+130) are. Already, both the top-five defense rules defy the rules. Jackson’s Griezlese ranks seventh. Mobley’s cavaliers are in eighth place. But both examine the need of the big man, and both play for the winning teams.
Jackson placed the mobile on the edges in most of the counting data. He blocks more shots. He steals and avoids more balls. Opponents shot a low percentage against him in Rim. But Jackson does not really reversal, and the statistical margin is much closer than two years ago. Mobley competes more shots and is slightly better on the circumference when it is asked to defend there. All-in-One Matrix shows no significant differences between the two. They are appropriately favored.
But we have not yet covered a single top-five defense. The number 1 rank thunder at that end of the floor is historical. They lead the league in theft and deflections while finishing sixth in both blocks. He has the best defensive rating of the last five years and the clippers in the second place have assets of about four points per 100. He has a candidate, right?
Well, Vegas has three of them to offer. Holmagraine, Heartenstein and Alex Caruso are out. However, Lu Dort (+2200), Shai Gillgas-Alexander (+2500) and Jalan Williams (+6000) are in.
Dort is the best protector of all three, often takes the most difficult matchup and hurts his life. There is a reason that he is “Dort Chamber”, after all. Gilgus-Alexander is mostly attacked on the switch because how good his companions are, but he is fully held, and he racks valuable turnover data such as theft and deflection. Williams does everything and even some centers are played in the season.
Of the three, the dort is the best condition. Voters have insisted on rewarding the same team in the past. How Smart won in 2022. Thunder can get that honor this year, and the dort is widely accepted as the team’s best circumference defender. Williams is very subtle, and Gilgus-Alexander is also known for his crime.
Currently, Dyson, who is currently in third place on the board, is at Daniel +450. His candidature currently faces many serious problems. He plays to protect the number 15 in NBA, for example, and things only figure to be difficult for hooks without Jalen Johnson. Daniel still leads the league in deflection and theft, but the gaps are not as heavy as they were once. And while Atlanta’s position as a play-in team is probably safe, Hawks are also below .500 at 26-29.
If there is a long shot that makes sense, it is the rockets of rockets at +6000. Houston defense is fourth, but unlike the dort, Thompson is not facing heavy competition from his own companions. Dillon Brooks may have an all-defense case, but he is not from far away at Thompson, and Tari is not playing enough minutes to seriously consider. Thompson can defend almost every situation and this season is the backbone of the NBA’s most amazing team.
Watch these lines closely in the coming days and weeks. A heavy betting favorite will soon emerge. For now, Vegas is playing with this carefully, jackson, mobile or other room to swell and take an award which was not available 24 hours ago.
