A coronal mass ejection (CME) from a solar filament eruption on June 3 is on its way to Earth and could give aurora chasers a treat.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) says Earth could receive a glancing blow from the CME by mid to late June 7 (UTC), while the UK Met Office places the arrival time slightly earlier, on Friday night (UTC).
If the CME arrives, it’s expected to stir up geomagnetic activity. Both NOAA SPWPC and the U.K. Met Office predict minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions but there’s potential for isolated moderate (G2) storms if the CME combines with the ongoing high-speed solar wind from an Earth-facing coronal hole.
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Geomagnetic storms occur when charged particles from the sun interact with Earth’s magnetosphere, potentially causing disruptions in satellite communications, power grid fluctuations, and — most excitingly — enhanced auroral activity. During G1 conditions, auroras can be visible across high latitudes, including Michigan and Maine. But if G2 conditions are reached, auroras could stretch as far south as New York and Idaho.
NOAA CME prediction model showing the CME leaving the sun and heading toward Earth (the green dot). (Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center)
What Is the Kp Index?
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center projects that the Kp index will peak at 4.67 on June 7. For the latest breakdown, check out NOAA’s 3-day forecast.
The Kp index is a scale from 0 to 9 that measures geomagnetic activity — the higher the number, the stronger the disturbance. Aurora visibility typically increases with higher Kp values, extending farther south from the poles.
Aurora alerts
To stay updated on aurora activity, consider using a space weather app that provides real-time forecasts based on your location. A great option is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts” (available for iOS and Android). For a deeper dive into space weather conditions, “Space Weather Live” is another excellent choice (available for iOS and Android)
Check out our aurora live updates blog for the latest northern lights forecasts and alerts.
