A foreign currency dealer counts US dollars at a shop in Karachi, Pakistan, May 19, 2022. — AFP/File
After the federal government unveiled the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, economic and industry experts emphasised the need for long-term structural reforms and warned against inconsistent policymaking.
Their reactions came in response to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, unveiled by Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb ahead of the federal budget.
Addressing a presser at launch of economic survey — a key pre-budget document, the FinMin revealed that country’s GDP grew by 2.7% with inflation clocking in at 4.6% in the outgoing fiscal year.
He noted that Pakistan’s economic recovery, which began after fiscal year 2023, gained momentum in FY 2024 and showed signs of consolidation in FY 2025, indicating a shift towards sustained stability and GDP growth. “The size of the economy surpassed the $400 billion mark for the first time, while per capita income increased to $1,824,” he added.
Speaking on Geo News special transmission, the analysts said that while key indicators such as GDP growth and inflation showed improvement, the gains remained fragile and could easily be reversed without sustained policy continuity, strategic incentives, and reform initiatives.
Prominent businessman Zubair Motiwala stressed that Pakistan’s economic credibility has improved and must now be strategically capitalised.
“We’ve created fiscal space through difficult measures — something we never had before. We must not waste it,” he said.
“I don’t think tomorrow’s budget will be an easy one,” Motiwala added, noting that unresolved issues like electricity, water shortages, and uncompetitive gas pricing continue to plague local industries.
“We need to seriously examine whether production costs for domestic industries have been addressed,” he said. “Reducing duties alone is not a recipe for boosting exports.”
Commenting on taxation, economist Dr Khaqan Najeeb recommended incentives for retailers using digital payment systems like Raast.
“Retailers using Raast should be granted GST concessions,” he said, adding: “Raast QR code is a good option. The government should also consider eliminating the ‘non-filer’ category.”
Meanwhile, Sajjad Mustafa Syed — Chairman P@SHA — highlighted the IT sector’s improved performance over the year but warned against policy volatility.
“This year we have shown progress in the IT sector… all we are asking for is consistency in tax policy. Any negative change could undo the gains we have made.”
Meanwhile, economist Ali Husnain was of the view that it was very important for Pakistan to undertake drastic reforms as the country was facing regional competition.
Commenting on the government’s policies, he said: “Direction is right but we have not seen major steps that are considered game changer… we need to do a lot.”
Explaining the reasons behind the tax shortfall, tax expert Ashfaq Tola said that the major issue was that agriculture sector was paying less than 1% tax.
“Retail sector’s impact should be between 3% to 4% of the GDP as an additional profit,” he said adding that the country has potential collect over Rs16,000 billion in taxes if the tax was collected on the basis of equity.
Calling the overall performance in agriculture sector dismal, Tola credited stable exchange rate and drop in global commodity prices for the decline in inflation rate.
He also warned against moving towards import-led growth, saying it will affect the local industry and employment and increase pressure on local currency. He added that the import should be opened for export-based industry and import substitution.
