Could South America benefit from Trump’s trade tariffs?

When Donald Trump revealed the level of trade tariff, countries around the world would face America, the countries of South America breathed a sigh of relief.

Ten out of 12 states on the continent got the lowest level of 10%.

Only Guyana and Venezuela were initially killed with high rates of 38% and 15% respectively, before 10% reduced to 10%. This came when Trump decided to stop the height rates at almost all countries for 90 days.

The exceptions are China, who have been killed with 145% and Canada and Mexico, who have still received 25% tariffs on some exports to the US.

Comments describing it as a win for South America argue that high American tariffs on China and Canada and Mexico can make South American goods more attractive to the US and global buyers.

During being admirable, this scene oversees wide global trade instability that South America is also revealed.

Here I will determine this debate – start with potential ups and downs for the area.

South America is rich in goods. Its biggest economies – Brazil and Argentina – are the major exporters of soybeans and petroleum, as well as in the case of Brazil, iron ore used in steel production.

The US’s huge tariffs on Chinese goods, and China’s 125%on US imports, can create opportunities for South American exporters.

For example, Brazil may increase agricultural exports to China to change the previous American supply. China is already Brazil’s largest export destination, followed by America.

There is an example. When Trump hit China with tariffs during his first post, China transferred some commodity purchases from the US to Brazil, promoting Brazilian soybean exports.

In Brazil, now continues with a 2025 soybean crop, some are hoping to repeat one.

These include Frederico D’Vila, a farmer and a pre-palateer who tie up with former Brazilian President Bolsoro. Mr. D’Villa was also a senior person in the first soybean producer group Aposzaa.

He tells the BBC that President Trump’s first term “was excellent for Brazil’s agriculture” was “in our favor” Tarp’s tariff at that time “.

However, Buenos Aires University is a counterpower of International Economics Professor Juan Carlos Holk. He says that raising “bilateral barriers” on goods mostly affects “who sells”, and not financial advantage for vendors – because prices are fixed globally.

So their suggestion is that South American countries should not expect more financial benefits from their goods as a result of Trump’s actions, simply differently different customers.

“Prices (instead) are affected by macroeconomic factors … for example if there is a recession,” he tells the BBC.

Nevertheless, other areas of South America are also expecting that Trump’s actions means they can win more global sales as countries decide to buy less from the US.

Take Brazilian beef industry. The President of the country, Luiz Insio Lula Da Silva, was recently in Japan in Japan in Japan For Brazilian beef export.

Japan currently buys 40% of its beef from the US. But Trump initially threatened to hit the country with 24% tariffs, shifting to Tokyo South America to buy more meat.

Other Brazilian industries, such as coffee and shoes, can gain a competitive lead over their Asian counterparts in the American market.

Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee, followed by Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia.

Trump initially hit Vietnam with 46% and 32% with Indonesia’s tariff. While those high rates are now at a break, if they are restored in July, it will make the beans more expensive in the US from those two countries.

It will give both Brazil and Colombian coffee a competitive advantage in the US, where they are already the main supplier.

Meanwhile, Brazilian showmakers could see more exports to the US as a result of Trump’s high tariff on Chinese exports. Currently China is the largest creator in the Brazilian shoes world Is in fifth place.

The other three countries in the top five list of world’s largest footwear growers are India, Vietnam and Indonesia. The US initially gave India a high tariff of 26%.

Uruguay’s new President Yamandu Orsi has also said that Trump’s tariffs are helping to carry forward a business deal between the European Union and South America’s block, Murkosur, close to reality.

He said that “there are very few options in Europe now, but to reduce their demands in the conversation to some extent”, as it wants to diversify business partners.

You must have mentioned a lot of “can” and “IFS”. This is not just because it is an early day. This is also because the speed and scale of American trade changes are causing widespread instability.

Does South America defeat the potential positivity potential negative, it is difficult to calculate the accurate calculation, which brings me risks to the continent.

First, 10% is still 10%. Even in countries with low tariff rates prices may decrease in US demand when prices increase. It is a greater risk for imports that compete with American domestic production, such as oil, soybean, copper, iron ore, gold and lithium.

The US has also killed aluminum and steel imports from all countries, with a tariff of 25%.

Brazil is a manufacturer of both metals and has large reserves of raw materials – bauxite and iron ore. Meanwhile, Argentina is one of the largest aluminum producers in South America, the company is Aluar and a small steel industry.

Argentina manufacturers warns that they can both lose American access and face more Chinese imports, increasing competition for domestic producers.

Argentina Steel Chamber Executive Director Carlos Wakero said, “We are worried that now can’t enter America.”

Trump’s tariff wars have also caused the instability of global commodity value, with a fall in oil and copper prices. Copper started 17 months in early April. This instability can kill the economies of Chile and Peru, where copper is the top export.

Eduardo Levy Jayati, a former chief economist at the Central Bank of Argentina, says that the price of commodity and the impact on global demand is “serious headwind” for South America.

Looking forward, Mr. Jayati says that if Brazil and Argentina are enjoying a major increase in exports to the US, they can give them high tariffs from Trump.

Eventually, Trump aims to promote domestic production, not imports from other countries.

Mr. Yayati says that if the South American nations start exporting more to China, Trump may be equally angry. “If Brazil fills the US quota of goods exports to China, the US may choose to punish Brazil.”

He said that Trump can try to pressurize Latin America to reduce China’s footprint in the region in lieu of favorable treatment. China invests billions of dollars in infrastructure projects in Central and South America.

Therefore, calling Trump’s tariffs a clear “victory” or “disadvantage” for South America oversees a complex position. Especially if Trump announced in July that every country except China, Canada and Mexico would continue at 10%.

As Mr. Hulk says: “It is very difficult to predict where it is going.”

Under this warning, he imagines a future where the US protects its manufacturing industries more than its agricultural commodities.

But says: “I am not sure that Latin America is ready to take advantage of those opportunities. There will definitely be definite opportunities, but something that changes the game? I don’t think so.”