An earthquake prediction went viral. Is it giving people false hope?

Brent Dimitruka calls himself a earthquake prophet.

In mid -October, he told his tens of thousands of social media followers that a earthquake would soon be a hit in the south of the small coastal city of Eureka, at the western point of California.

Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 hit the site in northern California – by putting millions under a tsunami warning and growing online of Mr. Dimitraka to forecast him the next one.

“So those who reject, what I do, how can you argue that this is just a coincidence. It requires serious skills to find out where the earthquakes will go,” they said on the new year’s eve.

But there is a problem: earthquake cannot be predicted, scientists who study them.

And it is really unpredictable that makes them so unstable. Millions of people living on the west coast of North America are afraid that “The Big Forest” can change any moment, landscape and countless life.

Lucy Jones, an earthquaker, who worked for the US Geological Survey (USGS) for more than three decades and wrote a book called The Big Oons, focused on his research on earthquake possibilities and improved flexibility to face such catastrophic events.

As long as he has studied the earthquake, Ms. Jones said that “The Big One” -means that there are people who respond to different things in different areas and claim that the code will be claimed to crack.

“The need for humans to create a pattern in the face of danger is very strong, it is a very common human reaction to fear,” he told the BBC. “This is not a future power, however.”

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), every year with some 100,000 earthquakes worldwide, it is understood that people want to warn.

Eureka Region – A coastal city north of San Francisco 270 miles (434 km), where December earthquake occurred, has felt more than 700 earthquakes alone within the previous year – including more than 10 in the previous week, data shows.

The region, where Mr. Dimitruk properly estimated that there would be an earthquake, according to the USGS, is one of the most “seismic sectors” in the US. Its instability is due to the meeting of three tectonic plates, an area known as Mendocino Triple Junction.

This is the speed of plates in relation to each other – whether up, down or with – which creates stress. When stress is released, earthquakes may occur.

Assuming that an earthquake would be here is an easy bet, Ms. Jones said, although a strong magnitude is seven quite rare.

The USGS notes are only 11 such quakes or strong since 1900. Five, including a Mr. Dimitraka, promoted on social media, took place in the same area.

While the estimate was correct, Ms. Jones told the BBC that it is not likely to have any earthquake – including the greatest, society -glorious types – will ever be able to predict with any accuracy.

There is a complex and “dynamic” set of geological factors that leads to an earthquake, Ms. Jones said.

The magnitude of a earthquake is likely that the event is happening, he said, using a piece of paper as a analogy: rip will continue until there is nothing that stops or slows it – such as water marks that wet the paper.

Scientists know why there is an earthquake – sudden movements with fault lines – but predicting such an event is something that USGS says that cannot be done and something can be done “We don’t expect to know how to find out at any time in future”.

The agency notes that it can calculate the possibility of earthquake in a particular area within a certain number of years – but it is as close as they can come.

Geological records suggest that some of the largest types of earthquakes known as “The Big Forest” for local people are accompanied by some regularity. The Cascadia subduction zone is known for slipping every 300 to 500 years, regularly increases the Pacific Northwestern coast with a 100-ft (30.5 m) long mega-tsunamis.

While the San Andreas Fault in Southern California is also a source of another potential “Big One”, in which bone-teej earthquakes occur every 200–300 years there. Experts have said that “big one” can be any moment in any field.

Ms. Jones says that in her career, she warned several thousand people for such predictions of a major earthquake – including people in the 1990s who sent fax to their office in the hope of warning her.

“When you get a prediction every week, someone is going to be lucky, right?” She says with laughter. “But then he usually used to go to his head and he predicted 10 more which was not right.”

Such a scenario has happened with Mr. Dimitrak, who has no science background. He has long predicted that an incredibly large 10.3 earthquake will attack the islands away from the coast of South -West Alaska or New Zealand, a magnitude so strong he said that it can disrupt global trade.

The USGS says that the prediction of an earthquake should contain three defined elements – a date and time, the location of the earthquake and magnitude – for any use.

But the timeline of Mr. Dimitrak continues to shift.

At one point, he said that it would come before or after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

Then he said that it would definitely be before 2030.

While that major earthquake has not yet gone on strike, Mr. Dimitruk said that he still believes that this will happen.

“I don’t believe it is just coincidental,” Mr. Dimitruk told the BBC. “It’s not random or destiny.”

This kind of thinking is common when it comes to earthquake, Ms. Jones said.

“Random distribution may look as if they have patterns, we look at the constellations in the stars,” he said.

“A lot of people are really afraid of earthquakes, and the way to deal with it is that it is going to predict (when) it is going to happen.”

But just because you cannot guess that when the earthquake strikes, it does not mean that you have to be unprepared, the experts said.

Each year, on the third Thursday in October, millions of Americans participate in the largest earthquake drill: The Great Shake Out.

It was built by a group of Southern California Earthquake Center, which included Ms. Jones.

During the drill, people practice the guidance of the drop, cover, and grip: they fall on their knees, cover the covered under a strong object like the desk, and hold for a minute.

The drill has become so popular since its installation that it has spread the earthquake-prone coast to other states and countries.

If outside, people are advised to go to an open space away from trees, buildings or electric rekhas. Near the ocean, people practice fleeing on high ground after stopping shaking to prepare for the possibility of tsunami.

Earthquake and volcanic program manager for the Washington State Emergency Management Division said, “Now, while the ground is not moving, while it is not a very stressful situation, it is really the best time to practice.”

In addition to the drill, residents of West Coast States use a phone alert system created by USGS called Shekelrt.

The system works by detecting the pressure waves emitted by the earthquake. Although it cannot predict when the earthquake will occur in a distant future, it gives seconds of warnings that can be a life-saving. It is a closest thing to a “prophet” that has been invented so far.