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It appears that the group of American voters who have shifted in large numbers from Democrats to Republicans in recent years on the combustible issue of immigration are actually the nation’s immigrants themselves.
A look at pre- and post-election surveys from the 2020 and 2024 cycles indicates a 49-point swing by voters born outside the United States – the vast majority of whom are considered immigrants – on which major political party would do a better job handling the issue of immigration.
American National Election Studies (ANES) data from the 2020 presidential election indicates voters born in another country said they favored Democrats rather than Republicans on the issue of immigration by a 58%-24% margin.
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Data from pre- and post-election surveys from the 2020 and 2024 cycles indicate a 49-point swing by voters born outside the United States on which major political party would do a better job handling the issue of immigration. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
Four years later, the data indicated 45% of voters born in another county who cast a ballot in the 2024 presidential election said the GOP would do a better job handling immigration, with 30% pointing to the Democratic Party.
There was a smaller but still prominent shift from the Democrats to the Republicans by all voters, according to the data from ANES, which is the oldest election study in the world (dating back to 1952) and is often referred to as the gold standard for election surveys.
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Daron Shaw, who serves as a member of the Fox News Decision Team and is the Republican partner on the Fox News poll, said the large shift toward the GOP on the immigration issue by those born outside the U.S. is “reflective of the fact that immigrant voters started so pro-Democrat. There’s more room for them to shift.”
Shaw also noted that before President Donald Trump first ran for the White House in 2016, immigration and border security were generally seen as separate issues.
President Donald Trump (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
“Since Trump has come on the scene, those issues have really melded to the Republican advantage,” Shaw said.
Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas, also said “you’re seeing a movement towards the Republican Party on immigration because it’s been largely focused on border security. That’s true with non-immigrant populations as well as immigrant populations.”
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Immigration and border security were key issues that Trump spotlighted as he campaigned to win back the White House in last year’s presidential election.
Republicans won back control of the presidency and the Senate and defended their small House majority in the 2024 elections. And Republicans made gains among Black, Hispanic and younger voters, all traditional members of the Democratic Party’s base.
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Border security and immigration have remained in the nation’s political spotlight in the nearly five months since Trump returned to the White House, thanks to the president’s sweeping and controversial moves on the two issues.
Aiming to extinguish escalating protests in Los Angeles sparked by immigration raids carried out by ICE at his administration’s direction, Trump sent in National Guard troops and even mobilized Marines. The unrest and the moves by Trump have dominated national headlines for nearly a week.
Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.”
