US forecast to be hit hardest of major economies

The forecast of US economic development for this year has been the biggest decline among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to uncertainty due to trade tariffs.

Below the IMF’s 2.7% estimate for the US in January, development is expected to be 1.8% this year.

A rapid increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to “significant recession” in global development, the fund predicts.

The forecast for the UK is also cut offThe economy is now expected to increase by 1.1% this year.

But the IMF has predicted that Britain’s economic growth will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy.

In the UK, inflation will be the highest among the world’s advanced economies, 3.1%this year due to high bills including energy and water.

Predictions come as top economic policy makers in Washington for the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the global economy is “still important traces” from “serious shocks of the last four years”.

“Now it is being tested once again,” he said.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he was “no intention of Federing” by Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell after heavily criticized.

Trump can try to dismiss Powell, try to sell in markets in recent times.

Trump has made a frightening of announcements on tariffs this year – fees on goods brought from other countries to America.

In the growing trade war, the US has placed a tariff of up to 145% on Chinese goods, while China has returned with 125% levy on US products.

The US has also introduced a 10% tax rate on goods with a vast majority of other countries, while for 90 days, it has stopped a lot of rates for dozens of countries.

Trump says tariffs will encourage American consumers to buy more American -made goods, increase tax volume and give rise to a huge level of investment in the country.

However, the IMF highlighted the potential negative impact on global trade, given that modern supply chains are so mutually connected.

Uncertainty around the trade policy was a “major factor” below development, Mr. Gurinchas said.

“Facing increased uncertainty … preventing the initial response of many firms, reducing investment and cutting shopping.”

The IMF predicts the global economy this year, this year will increase by 2.8%, below the previous forecast of 3.3%, and up to 3.0% in 2026.

The IMF stated that downgrade for the forecast of US development was due to more policy uncertainty, trading stress and slower than the expected consumer expenses. Tariff is expected to increase in 2026.

The IMF said that now there was 40% of the US recession this year, which is more than an estimate of 25% in October last year.

Earlier on Tuesday, banking group International Finance Institute Later this year, “shallow recession” in the US was expected, with a negative increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

China is expected to increase by 4% this year below 4.6% from IMF’s previous estimate.

In the UK, the bottom amendment tariffs, high government lending costs, and high bills and energy costs as a result of weak consumer expenditure.

However, IMF’s 2025 prediction for the UK is close to now. Definition of 1% increase by the government’s office for budget responsibility (OBR) last month. The IMF hopes that the UK will increase by 1.4% next year.

In response to the forecast, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that the Britain was still the fastest growing European G7 country because “reforms that would increase long -term growth in the UK”.

Reeves said that “the world has changed” and it will be in Washington this week “being defending British interests and making a case for free and fair trade”.

However, Conservative Shadow Chancellor Mail Streed stated that the IMF approach was “a worrying indictment of the economic approach of the labor”.

He said, “The IMF has reduced the UK development forecast, which has increased serious concerns about the lack of confidence and direction under labor. They have also amended their forecast for inflation,” he said.

IMF’s world economic approach also includes the following forecasts:

• The prediction of eurozone growth has been trimmed from 1% to 0.8% for this year. It is ready to increase by 1.2% in 2026, with high government spending in Germany.
• Spain is the only advanced economy that upgraded its 2025 development forecast – from 2.3% to 2.5%. This is due to partially after flood rebuilding activity
• The prediction of Canada’s growth for this year cuts from 2% to 1.4%, reflecting tariff uncertainty and “geo -political stress”.
• Mexico sees the largest downgrade. Compared to the forecast of an increase of 1.4% of January, this year 0.3% contract has been predicted.

Given the many factors affecting economic growth, the forecasts are never correct, and the IMF admitted that its latest predictions were particularly challenging.

The given figures called the IMF “reference forecast” based on the position of April 4, which was two days after Trump’s announcement of a broad tariff.

Mr. Gauinchas said that the reference forecast was the central scenario of the IMF, “There are many possible paths, which show the unexpectedness around the future trade policy and the different effects of tariffs in various countries”.

The IMF also saw the situation when the US temporarily suspended several tariffs, while raising those people rapidly in China.

Shri Gauinchas said that tariff stagnation did not “physically” the global approach to its reference forecast, as the overall effective tariff rate of the US and China remains high and uncertainty about the policy.