Liberation Day – As the White House has unveiled its new trade policy – finally we are on.
But what it really means and what will be the effect, it is still not clear, as President Donald Trump has waited for businesses and world leaders till Wednesday to unveil the next round of business.
While Mr. Trump has suggested that all countries will be hit with additional levies – and Sir Kir Stmper has admitted that the UK is unlikely to avoid new measures – it is still certainly away which industries will bear the brunt at this time, steel, aluminum and auto parts are already subject to additional import costs with aluminum and auto parts.
There is a look here is what is already known, what can be, and what are investors as uncertainty.
Market reaction
The top end of the UK’s stock market has performed relatively well this year, with the increase, inflation, still high interest rates and concerns on the broader geopolitical landscape.
Unlike the S&P 500 of the US, the FTSE is more than 5 percent from 100 years old, below the same amount. Uncertainty has hit small businesses more, in 2025 FTSE 250 5.2 percent and AIM All-Syre Index is 4.3 percent.
Recently, while there was a sell-off on Monday before these new tariffs, it was not eventually not as much as the case was seen in the beginning and Tuesday saw investors buying once again on price weaknesses, probably indicating that some saw more negative in share price terms, even with new tariffs.
It is always playing a foolish playing the most immediate, the most immediate, the next step of the stock market, but the AJ Bell notes that the largest technical shares in the US have lost $ 2.3 trillion in the first quarter of this year-they have strong growth possibilities in the future “and” The situation is more waste in the market. ,
In the UK, especially defense stocks have performed strongly, the price has increased with a domestic political strategy based on increased expenses in the region – while the price of gold, a traditional safe shelter for investors, has hit the new record high this year and has been predicted to increase further in 2025 by some analysts.
How bad could it be?
According to the Eston Business School, the total global economic toll in the price hike and job loss can be $ 1.4 trillion (£ 1.1 trillion). If “complete global vengeance with mutual tariffs” is the end result, which will see the US economy in particular hits.
Naturally, if the entire planet is affected on that scale, the UK will not be exempted, but there is still scope to change the business paths, perhaps it is no longer admirable to look for partners to grow back-end-welfare business with dependence on the US.
Separate from businesses, government spending may also be affected. Last week, Rhel Reeves said that the government was saving to restore £ 9.9bn headroom for government expenditure.
An assessment of Trump tariff and one of the worst conditions associated with the UK suggests that it will be completely and immediately erased.
Budget Responsibility (OBR) Budget Responsibility from the office of Budget Responsibility of David Miles told MPs: “If the tariffs at 20 – 25 percent were put in the UK and maintained for five years, what it does, its assessment is that it will knock all the headrooms that the government currently has.
“If we made a central forecast, and the government did not change the policy to know that we are going to take it as our central forecast, the headroom will go too much.”
Mr. Miles mentioned the impossibility of the “extreme” landscape, which would include a word beyond the next US presidential elections, but OBR further referred to the hit for the trust of trade in Britain due to tariffs and uncertainty around tariffs and other costs.
A more optimistic approach
At the other end of the scale, it is a perspective that some changes can really mean the UK may really benefit From a business war. Again, it is important to note that a broad, universal word-now the business or industry will be negatively affected within that.
But OBR mentioned that if the UK avoids participation in the trade war, then mutual tariffs and some, some The redirected trade flow can eliminate the growing trading on this side of the water.
Most of its part is based on the fact that the UK-US trade deficit is far more appropriately balanced, for example, the European Union-US one.
Warwick Business School Professor Irina Surdu-Nirdela said the CNBC tariff could have a limited impact on the UK so far.
“Effect will be relatively limited to industries such as fishing and mining,” Ms. Surdu-Nardela said, “pointing to the” service-centered nature of the UK economy “, it means that most of the imports will be ineffective with the tariff.
Of course, there is also a possibility that Mr. Trump and Sri Sri Stimmers make a compromise, which makes the British companies completely unaffected by the entire process, possibly they lead them to a leg to gain further trade with foreign customers.
