On April 2, at a rose garden ceremony, US President Donald Trump will announce “Mukti Day”. But instead of freeing the economy, the plan to unveil the tariff he planned can brake on global development, ignite inflation, and throw the world into an economic tailspin.
News driving
- According to a Financial Times report, which is based on the Econometric Study by Aston University, one of the worst conditions for Trump’s proposed 25% tariff, global vengeance global vengeance can hammer the world economy with $ 1.4 trillion income hit and crippled global trade.
- Research models reflect six growing scenarios based on bilateral trade data of 132 countries, showing how a tight-for-tat tariff spiral will move from Europe and beyond Europe and beyond-destabilizing the supply chains and raising prices.
- According to a report by the Washington Post, White House advisor Peter Navaro said on Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs will generate more than $ 6 trillion in federal revenue in the next ten years – a projection, which if realized, will increase the greatest peace in modern American history, according to experts.
- Speaking on Fox News, Navaro said that the tariffs on auto imports would be brought in $ 100 billion annually. He said that a comprehensive set of unrelated tariffs would still produce an additional $ 600 billion per year, which would be a total of $ 6 trillion in the next decade.
why it matters
- Trump’s advisors argue that economic pain is worth it. They imagine a future where American factories again hum, shrink, and tariff revenue funds are a new era of domestic tax cuts.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of American dreams.” “The dream lies in upper dynamics and economic security.”
- But investors and economists are not confident. S&P 500 Q1 fell 4.6%, the worst start since 2022.
- Goldman Sachs increased the possibility of US recession by 35%, by 20%.
- American colleagues, including Canada, Japan and Germany, have warned the White House that indiscriminate tariffs can spark vertebrates and damage global development.
- Economic historian Douglas Irwin said, “It is going to be much larger than the smooth-hale.” “Import is now a major part of GDP in the early 1930s.”
We are going to charge countries to do business in our country and take our jobs, take our property, take a lot of things that they have been taking for years. They have taken a lot from our country, friend and enemy.
Trump’s plan – targeted countries that impose high tariffs on American goods – can reopen the global economic system to a large extent. According to FT’s report, research conducted by economists at Aston University suggests how a cycle of ventilation triggers complex changes in global trade, initially affects North America – especially America, Mexico and Canada – spread in Europe and eventually affect the rest of the world.
While some nations like India can get minor benefits from diverted trade, the big picture is serious:
- American exports fall over 46%, causing standing domestic inflation of more than 5%.
- The global standing standards decline, especially on American trade in countries.
- Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the tariffs are widely applied and retaliated, the US GDP may be reduced by 4%. Consumers can jump 2.5% in 2-3 years, causing damage to purchasing power.
- India, Britain, Japan and South Korea can be temporarily benefited – but only when the increase is moderate.
India’s strategic opportunity – and its limitations
India appears, on paper, one of some countries in which something is achieved.
In the scenarios where business patterns shift to avoid US-EU or US-China tariff obstacles, with India, UK,
Japan and South Korea, may be mildly benefited by trade diversion. These countries may see the increasing demand for export in areas where the US first depended on more tariff-signed suppliers.
For India, the opportunity lies in electronics, pharmaceuticals and textiles – already being nurtured under the “Make in India” initiative. The growing reputation of the country as a manufacturing option for China, with a neutral position outside the major trade blocks such as the European Union, may give it a position as a Go-Two supplier in the time of uncertainty.
But the benefits are marginal. And fleeting.
>”India may benefit from some supply chain innings,” said a senior economist at a New Delhi -based think tank, “But if the global trade environment becomes unstable, the capital flow will become unstable, inflation will increase, and will catch the wave effect.”
Actually, India imports a lot of its energy, machinery and high-end components. A broad-based trade war will make many of these imports more expensive. This will prevent inflation and squeeze the government’s fiscal room. Reserve Bank of India, already vigilant food prices, can be forced to tighten
the policy – potentially growing growth.
In short: India may hold an air in the initial gust, but it will not escape the storm.
Back in future?
Interestingly, Trump’s renewed tariff push comes at a time when the American economy is more dependent on imports than ever. Its imports now about 14-16% of the US GDP-a figure is almost triple what it was during the 1930s conservationist Smut-Hale era. It underlines how deeply the US is integrated into global supply chains today. A report by Bloomberg stated that the return of aggressive tariffs, such as Trump is proposing,
a system built on liberal trade policy for decades, stunned in a report by Bloomberg.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Next, if fully applied, their “mutual tariff” strategy will increase the US average tariff level on goods up to about 35%from the end of the 1800s. It will also cross the levels seen during the infamous smooth-warts period, which historians blamed for deepening great depression.
Trump’s plan will recreate a scale trading obstacles on a scale over a century, far more for
international commerce despite a modern economy.
The opposite one painting between the two charts is depicted: while the structure of the US
economy has developed to much dependent on imports, Trump’s proposed trade policy lies in an era
when international trade was minimal. Economists warned
that this disconnect may promote inflation, disrupt industries, and lead to vengeance that reflects both global and domestic development.
What will happen next?
Trump’s prolonged promise “Mukti Divas” speech will be seen for three major details:
Universal or mutual? The White House remains divided.
Sectoral carvings? Automobiles, steel, pharma and semiconductor are in focus.
Period and flexibility. Will tariffs be negotiated or fixed for long periods?
Inside the West Wing, groups are carrying different approaches. Some advocate a hard 20% universal tariff to send a signal. Others want a flexible structure to open the room for bilateral talks.
“With Trump, this is all a conversation,” said Sen James Lankford. “This is like a kitchen remodel.
It is a noise, but we know where we are going.”
>But other people warns, “You do not re -prepare the global economy with a hammer,
” an European business officer quipped from the record.
>Bottom line
Trump’s tariff plan is a bold gambling that can remake the global trading system – or immerse
it in prolonged uncertainty. India finds itself in a rare position: not the goal of the first strike, and
possibly in line for minor trade benefits.
>But as history warns, and data confirms, no country is really safe
when tariffs become
the economic weapon of the world.
