how bad could it get?

A measles outbreak is increasing in the United States, with no end. As of 18 March, 279 cases were reported in Texas, 38 in neighboring New Mexico and 4 in Oklahoma, which is also the range of Texas. Khasre has killed an unnatural six -year -old child in Ganes County, Texas, the center of outbreak, and a suspicious cause of the death of an untouched adult in New Mexico.

“We have not yet seen signs of outbreak,” says William Moss, an infectious-expert at the University of Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, Maryland.

Even health officials tried to prevent outbreaks, US Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, which has a long history of anti-teaching activism, has offered only Tipid support for measles vaccine in a safe and powerful way to prevent infection. Kennedy has also promoted treatments including cod liver oil, steroids and antibiotics, which are not effective against measles. (Kennedy has said that he does not oppose vaccination, but it should be a “personal” option.)

Nature Experts were asked how bad things could be.

How big can an outbreak?

It is difficult to predict. Moss says that a measles wrath is like a forest fire. If a spark land in a state like Maryland, which has a 97% measles vaccination rate, will simply exit. But “If the sparks from this early fire land in communities where the rate of vaccination is low, we are going for many big outbreaks”, Moss says.

“I think it can be found in thousands and thousands of cases,” is called a virologist Paul Affette at Philadelphia’s Children’s Hospital in Pennsylvania.

Why is measles so incredibly contagious?

Measles is the most infectious disease that is directly transmitted among people. Epideologists use a metric R₀ To indicate how many people, on average, a person with a given disease expect to be infected. R₀ There is a 12–18 for measles. By comparing, R₀ At the beginning of the epidemic, it was estimated to be around 1.4–2.5 for Covid-19, and R₀ The influenza is about 1-2.

Measles is so contagious that in 1991, a single athlete infected 16 others with measles at a sports stadium, including 2 at least 30 meters (about the length of a gym).

Measles is partially infectiously contagious because the dose required to infect someone is very low. In addition, measles virus spreads through air drops when an infected person breathes so much. If a measles passes through a room, infectious drops may hang in the air or later relax on surfaces for two hours.

What is more, in the first 2-4 days, the disease often has symptoms – such as fever, cough and flowing nose – which can fool people thinking that they are cold. As a result, people with measles may not be isolated when they are highly contagious. Gappy red spots of the disease usually do not appear for several days in the disease.

What are the long -term effects of measles?

Measles can kill: Every 1,000 is fatal between about one and three cases in unhappy children. About 5-6% of infected people develop pneumonia, which is the most common cause of death in measles young children. Measles can also cause blindness or hearing loss.

One of the most terrible long -term effects is a rare, almost always fatal complication called subcutaneous sclerosing pannsfalitis. It develops years after a measles infection and is characterized by cognitive decline, personality change and dementia.

Another long -term effect is ‘immunity forgetting disease’. Measles can erase a large number of antibodies that store the body’s memory how to fight other diseases. There is evidence that measles may leave the immune system susceptible to other diseases for some 2-3 years after infection.¹,

Even intense symptoms of measles can be very unpleasant. They include oral ulcers, ear infections, krup, laryngitis and diarrhea.

“The way we stop it is to vaccinate,” Moss is called.